Vietnam U17 2–0 Hong Kong U17: Result & Stats

Vietnam U17

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hong Kong U17

11/26/2025

AFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vietnam U1770%

×Draw18%

Hong Kong U1712%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vietnam U17Expected goals in this matchHong Kong U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.85

Vietnam U17

2.29

Hong Kong U17

0.85

Vietnam U17 creates 169% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

3.25

creates per match

0.33

1.38

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Vietnam U17

3.25

Hong Kong U17

0.33

allows per match

Vietnam U17

1.38

Hong Kong U17

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vietnam U17+0.00on par

Hong Kong U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam U17 ↓

Hong Kong U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Vietnam U17 or draw

88%

Vietnam U17 or Hong Kong U17

82%

Draw or Hong Kong U17

30%

Winning margin

Vietnam U17 wins by 2+

46%

Hong Kong U17 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vietnam U17 1+ goals

90%

Vietnam U17 2+ goals

66%

Vietnam U17 3+ goals

40%

Hong Kong U17 1+ goals

57%

Hong Kong U17 2+ goals

21%

Hong Kong U17 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vietnam U17 (draw refunded)

85%

Hong Kong U17 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam U17 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Hong Kong U17 away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam U17 attack 3.25 + Hong Kong U17 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hong Kong U17 attack 0.33 + Vietnam U17 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vietnam U17 scores more

70%

level

18%

Hong Kong U17 scores more

12%

Vietnam U17 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vietnam U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff