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Vídir vs Tindastóll — 2. Deild 2018

Vídir
Vídir
FT
3 – 0
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
5/18/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 3Nesfisk-völlurinn (Garður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vídir69%
×Draw17%
Tindastóll14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
2.59
Tindastóll
1.08

Vídir creates 140% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.60
Tindastóll
0.73

allows per match

Vídir
1.44
Tindastóll
3.59

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
86%
Vídir or Tindastóll
83%
Draw or Tindastóll
31%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
48%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
92%
Vídir 2+ goals
73%
Vídir 3+ goals
47%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
66%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
29%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
83%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.60 + Tindastóll defence 3.59 → ÷2 → 2.59

Tindastóll attack 0.73 + Vídir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vídir scores more
69%
level
17%
Tindastóll scores more
14%

Vídir at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vídir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vídir vs Tindastóll

Vídir beat Tindastóll 3-0 in 2. Deild on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn (Garður).