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Vídir vs Thróttur Vogar — 2. Deild 2026

Vídir
Vídir
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
E. Omarsson 86'
J. Hjaltason 50'
5/16/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 3Nesfisk-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vídir40%
×Draw22%
Thróttur Vogar37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
1.77
Thróttur Vogar
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.67
Thróttur Vogar
1.72

allows per match

Vídir
1.67
Thróttur Vogar
1.88

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Thróttur Vogar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
63%
Vídir or Thróttur Vogar
78%
Draw or Thróttur Vogar
60%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
21%
Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
83%
Vídir 2+ goals
53%
Vídir 3+ goals
26%
Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
82%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
50%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
52%
Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.67 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.72 + Vídir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vídir scores more
40%
level
22%
Thróttur Vogar scores more
37%

Vídir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vídir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
J. Hjaltason
86'
E. Omarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vídir vs Thróttur Vogar

Thróttur Vogar beat Vídir 2-0 in 2. Deild on May 16, 2025.

Goals: J. Hjaltason (50'), E. Omarsson (86').

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn in Garður.