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Vídir vs Huginn — 2. Deild 2018

Vídir
Vídir
FT
1 – 1
Huginn
Huginn
6/23/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 8Nesfisk-völlurinn (Garður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vídir69%
×Draw17%
Huginn14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
2.53
Huginn
1.04

Vídir creates 143% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.60
Huginn
0.64

allows per match

Vídir
1.44
Huginn
3.45

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Huginn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Huginn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
86%
Vídir or Huginn
83%
Draw or Huginn
31%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
47%
Huginn wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
92%
Vídir 2+ goals
71%
Vídir 3+ goals
46%
Huginn 1+ goals
65%
Huginn 2+ goals
28%
Huginn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
83%
Huginn (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

Huginn away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.60 + Huginn defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.53

Huginn attack 0.64 + Vídir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vídir scores more
69%
level
17%
Huginn scores more
14%

Vídir at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vídir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vídir 1 – 1 Huginn

Vídir and Huginn drew 1-1 in 2. Deild on June 23, 2018.

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn (Garður).