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Vídir vs Grotta — 2. Deild 2026

Vídir
Vídir
FT
1 – 2
Grotta
Grotta
9/8/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 20Nesfisk-völlurinn (Garður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vídir26%
×Draw22%
Grotta52%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
1.33
Grotta
1.96

Grotta creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.67
Grotta
2.25

allows per match

Vídir
1.67
Grotta
1.00

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Grotta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Grotta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
48%
Vídir or Grotta
78%
Draw or Grotta
74%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
11%
Grotta wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
74%
Vídir 2+ goals
38%
Vídir 3+ goals
15%
Grotta 1+ goals
86%
Grotta 2+ goals
58%
Grotta 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
33%
Grotta (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Grotta away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.67 + Grotta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Grotta attack 2.25 + Vídir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vídir scores more
26%
level
22%
Grotta scores more
52%

Grotta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grotta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vídir 1 – 2 Grotta

Grotta beat Vídir 2-1 in 2. Deild on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn (Garður).