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Vídir vs Ægir — 2. Deild 2026

Vídir
Vídir
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Ægir
Ægir
D. Toro Jimenez 55'
M. Mani Jonsson 39'
D. Thrastarson 90+7'
J. Adeyemo 59'
B. Joninuson 51'
9/13/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 22Nesfisk-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vídir34%
×Draw21%
Ægir45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
1.73
Ægir
2.01

Ægir creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.67
Ægir
2.36

allows per match

Vídir
1.67
Ægir
1.79

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Ægir+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Ægir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
55%
Vídir or Ægir
79%
Draw or Ægir
66%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
17%
Ægir wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
82%
Vídir 2+ goals
52%
Vídir 3+ goals
25%
Ægir 1+ goals
87%
Ægir 2+ goals
59%
Ægir 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
43%
Ægir (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Ægir away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.67 + Ægir defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ægir attack 2.36 + Vídir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vídir scores more
34%
level
21%
Ægir scores more
45%

Ægir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
M. Mani Jonsson
51'
B. Joninuson
55'
D. Toro Jimenez
59'
J. Adeyemo
90+7'
D. Thrastarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vídir vs Ægir

Ægir beat Vídir 3-2 in 2. Deild on September 13, 2025.

Goals: M. Mani Jonsson (39'), B. Joninuson (51'), D. Toro Jimenez (55'), J. Adeyemo (59'), D. Thrastarson (90+7').

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn in Garður.