Videoton II 4–0 Teskánd: Result & Stats

Videoton II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Teskánd

S. Vintonji 78', 53', 43'

B. Horvath 46'

11/19/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 18MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Videoton II53%

×Draw21%

Teskánd26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Videoton IIExpected goals in this matchTeskánd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.46

Videoton II

2.16

Teskánd

1.46

Videoton II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

1.47

1.46

allows per match

2.95

creates per match

Videoton II

1.36

Teskánd

1.47

allows per match

Videoton II

1.46

Teskánd

2.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par

Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Teskánd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw

74%

Videoton II or Teskánd

79%

Draw or Teskánd

47%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+

32%

Teskánd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals

88%

Videoton II 2+ goals

63%

Videoton II 3+ goals

36%

Teskánd 1+ goals

77%

Teskánd 2+ goals

43%

Teskánd 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)

67%

Teskánd (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.16

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Videoton II scores more

53%

level

21%

Teskánd scores more

26%

Videoton II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Videoton II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

S. Vintonji

46'

B. Horvath

53'

S. Vintonji

78'

S. Vintonji

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff