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Videoton II vs Szentlőrinc SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Videoton II
Videoton II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Szentlőrinc SE
Szentlőrinc SE
8/13/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 3MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Videoton II22%
×Draw24%
Szentlőrinc SE54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videoton II
1.04
Szentlőrinc SE
1.76

Szentlőrinc SE creates 69% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Videoton II
1.36
Szentlőrinc SE
2.07

allows per match

Videoton II
1.46
Szentlőrinc SE
0.73

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par
Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Szentlőrinc SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw
46%
Videoton II or Szentlőrinc SE
76%
Draw or Szentlőrinc SE
78%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+
8%
Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals
65%
Videoton II 2+ goals
28%
Videoton II 3+ goals
9%
Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals
83%
Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals
52%
Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)
29%
Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Szentlőrinc SE away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Szentlőrinc SE attack 2.07 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Videoton II scores more
22%
level
24%
Szentlőrinc SE scores more
54%

Szentlőrinc SE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Videoton II vs Szentlőrinc SE

Szentlőrinc SE beat Videoton II 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.