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Videoton II vs Majosi — NB III - Southwest 2019

Videoton II
Videoton II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Majosi
Majosi
3/10/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 19MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Videoton II40%
×Draw25%
Majosi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videoton II
1.48
Majosi
1.35

Videoton II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 45 away

creates per match

Videoton II
1.36
Majosi
1.24

allows per match

Videoton II
1.46
Majosi
1.60

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par
Majosi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Majosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw
65%
Videoton II or Majosi
75%
Draw or Majosi
60%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+
19%
Majosi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals
77%
Videoton II 2+ goals
43%
Videoton II 3+ goals
19%
Majosi 1+ goals
74%
Majosi 2+ goals
39%
Majosi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)
54%
Majosi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Majosi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Majosi defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Majosi attack 1.24 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Videoton II scores more
40%
level
25%
Majosi scores more
35%

Videoton II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Videoton II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Videoton II 0–1 Majosi

Majosi beat Videoton II 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.