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Videoton II vs Ferencváros II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Videoton II
Videoton II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
8/2/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 2MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Videoton II34%
×Draw24%
Ferencváros II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videoton II
1.42
Ferencváros II
1.61

Ferencváros II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 45 away

creates per match

Videoton II
1.36
Ferencváros II
1.76

allows per match

Videoton II
1.46
Ferencváros II
1.47

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par
Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Ferencváros II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw
58%
Videoton II or Ferencváros II
76%
Draw or Ferencváros II
66%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+
15%
Ferencváros II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals
76%
Videoton II 2+ goals
41%
Videoton II 3+ goals
17%
Ferencváros II 1+ goals
80%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
48%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)
45%
Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Videoton II scores more
34%
level
24%
Ferencváros II scores more
42%

Ferencváros II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Videoton II 1–0 Ferencváros II

Videoton II beat Ferencváros II 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.