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Videoton II vs Dunaföldvár — NB III - Southwest 2019

Videoton II
Videoton II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
10/1/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 9MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Videoton II57%
×Draw20%
Dunaföldvár23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videoton II
2.23
Dunaföldvár
1.34

Videoton II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

creates per match

Videoton II
1.36
Dunaföldvár
1.23

allows per match

Videoton II
1.46
Dunaföldvár
3.10

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par
Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Dunaföldvár →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw
77%
Videoton II or Dunaföldvár
80%
Draw or Dunaföldvár
43%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+
35%
Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals
89%
Videoton II 2+ goals
65%
Videoton II 3+ goals
38%
Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
74%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
39%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)
72%
Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Videoton II scores more
57%
level
20%
Dunaföldvár scores more
23%

Videoton II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Videoton II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Videoton II vs Dunaföldvár

Dunaföldvár beat Videoton II 4-2 in NB III - Southwest on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.