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Videm vs Zreče — 3. SNL - East 2020

Videm
Videm
FT
2 – 2
Zreče
Zreče
9/13/20203. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 4Športni park Videm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Videm70%
×Draw16%
Zreče14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videm
2.70
Zreče
1.13

Videm creates 139% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

Videm
2.40
Zreče
1.00

allows per match

Videm
1.25
Zreče
3.00

finishing

Videm+0.00on par
Zreče+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videm ↓

Zreče →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Videm or draw
86%
Videm or Zreče
84%
Draw or Zreče
30%

Winning margin

Videm wins by 2+
49%
Zreče wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Videm 1+ goals
93%
Videm 2+ goals
75%
Videm 3+ goals
50%
Zreče 1+ goals
68%
Zreče 2+ goals
31%
Zreče 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Videm (draw refunded)
84%
Zreče (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videm at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Zreče away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videm attack 2.40 + Zreče defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Zreče attack 1.00 + Videm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Videm scores more
70%
level
16%
Zreče scores more
14%

Videm at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Videm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Videm 2 – 2 Zreče

Videm and Zreče drew 2-2 in 3. SNL - East on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Športni park Videm in Videm pri Ptuju.