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Vidar vs Vard — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vidar
Vidar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vard
Vard
A. Vaaland 63', 35'
H. Jensen 56'
A. Bergersen 29'
3/26/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vidar47%
×Draw21%
Vard32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
2.04
Vard
1.66

Vidar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vidar
1.25
Vard
1.82

allows per match

Vidar
1.50
Vard
2.82

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
68%
Vidar or Vard
79%
Draw or Vard
53%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
27%
Vard wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
87%
Vidar 2+ goals
60%
Vidar 3+ goals
33%
Vard 1+ goals
81%
Vard 2+ goals
49%
Vard 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
59%
Vard (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Vard away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 1.25 + Vard defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vard attack 1.82 + Vidar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vidar scores more
47%
level
21%
Vard scores more
32%

Vidar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
A. Bergersen
35'
A. Vaaland
56'
H. Jensen
63'
A. Vaaland
Vidar
Vard
K. Sørli
Manager: K. Sørli
Kolbjorn Fosen
Manager: Kolbjorn Fosen

Match Recap: Vidar vs Vard

Vidar beat Vard 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 26, 2026.

Goals: A. Bergersen (29'), A. Vaaland (35', 63'), H. Jensen (56').