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Vidar vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vidar
Vidar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Start II
Start II
6/3/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 9Lassa idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vidar81%
×Draw11%
Start II8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
3.58
Start II
1.11

Vidar creates 223% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vidar
3.77
Start II
1.54

allows per match

Vidar
0.69
Start II
3.38

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
92%
Vidar or Start II
89%
Draw or Start II
19%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
64%
Start II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
97%
Vidar 2+ goals
86%
Vidar 3+ goals
67%
Start II 1+ goals
67%
Start II 2+ goals
30%
Start II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
91%
Start II (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 3.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Start II away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 3.77 + Start II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.58

Start II attack 1.54 + Vidar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Vidar scores more
81%
level
11%
Start II scores more
8%

Vidar at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vidar vs Start II

Vidar beat Start II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 3, 2024.

The match was played at Lassa idrettspark in Stavanger.