Vidar 5–0 Sandnes Ulf II: Result & Stats

Vidar

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sandnes Ulf II

8/20/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 17Lassa idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vidar86%

×Draw9%

Sandnes Ulf II5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VidarExpected goals in this matchSandnes Ulf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.66

0.84

Vidar

3.66

Sandnes Ulf II

0.84

Vidar creates 336% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

3.77

creates per match

1.00

0.69

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Vidar

3.77

Sandnes Ulf II

1.00

allows per match

Vidar

0.69

Sandnes Ulf II

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par

Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Vidar or draw

95%

Vidar or Sandnes Ulf II

91%

Draw or Sandnes Ulf II

14%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+

70%

Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals

97%

Vidar 2+ goals

87%

Vidar 3+ goals

68%

Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals

57%

Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals

21%

Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)

95%

Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 3.77, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 3.77 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.66

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.00 + Vidar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Vidar scores more

86%

level

9%

Sandnes Ulf II scores more

5%

Vidar at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff