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Vidar vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Vidar
Vidar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
8/10/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 16Lassa idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vidar57%
×Draw19%
Sandnes Ulf II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
2.52
Sandnes Ulf II
1.60

Vidar creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vidar
2.55
Sandnes Ulf II
1.81

allows per match

Vidar
1.39
Sandnes Ulf II
2.50

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
76%
Vidar or Sandnes Ulf II
81%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
43%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
37%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
92%
Vidar 2+ goals
71%
Vidar 3+ goals
45%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
80%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
47%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
71%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 2.55 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Vidar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vidar scores more
57%
level
19%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
24%

Vidar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Vidar 2–1 Sandnes Ulf II

Vidar beat Sandnes Ulf II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at Lassa idrettspark in Stavanger.