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Vidar vs Frøya — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Vidar
Vidar
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Frøya
Frøya
9/30/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 22Lassa idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vidar53%
×Draw21%
Frøya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
2.08
Frøya
1.38

Vidar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vidar
2.55
Frøya
1.38

allows per match

Vidar
1.39
Frøya
1.62

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Frøya+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Frøya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
75%
Vidar or Frøya
79%
Draw or Frøya
47%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
32%
Frøya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
87%
Vidar 2+ goals
61%
Vidar 3+ goals
34%
Frøya 1+ goals
75%
Frøya 2+ goals
40%
Frøya 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
68%
Frøya (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Frøya away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 2.55 + Frøya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.08

Frøya attack 1.38 + Vidar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vidar scores more
53%
level
21%
Frøya scores more
25%

Vidar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vidar 6 – 1 Frøya

Vidar beat Frøya 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Lassa idrettspark in Stavanger.