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Vidar vs Eiger — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Vidar
Vidar
FT
3 – 0
Eiger
Eiger
5/29/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 7Lassa idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vidar72%
×Draw15%
Eiger13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
3.04
Eiger
1.27

Vidar creates 139% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vidar
2.55
Eiger
1.15

allows per match

Vidar
1.39
Eiger
3.54

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Eiger+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Eiger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
87%
Vidar or Eiger
85%
Draw or Eiger
28%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
52%
Eiger wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
95%
Vidar 2+ goals
80%
Vidar 3+ goals
57%
Eiger 1+ goals
72%
Eiger 2+ goals
36%
Eiger 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
84%
Eiger (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Eiger away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 2.55 + Eiger defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 3.04

Eiger attack 1.15 + Vidar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vidar scores more
72%
level
15%
Eiger scores more
13%

Vidar at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vidar vs Eiger

Vidar beat Eiger 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Lassa idrettspark in Stavanger.