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Vida vs Olancho — Liga Nacional 2018

Vida
Vida
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olancho
Olancho
3/12/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Vida39%
×Draw27%
Olancho34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vida
1.31
Olancho
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 85 away

creates per match

Vida
1.38
Olancho
1.12

allows per match

Vida
1.29
Olancho
1.25

finishing

Vida+0.00on par
Olancho+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vida ↓

Olancho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vida or draw
66%
Vida or Olancho
73%
Draw or Olancho
61%

Winning margin

Vida wins by 2+
18%
Olancho wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vida 1+ goals
73%
Vida 2+ goals
38%
Vida 3+ goals
14%
Olancho 1+ goals
70%
Olancho 2+ goals
34%
Olancho 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vida (draw refunded)
53%
Olancho (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vida at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 109 matches

Olancho away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vida attack 1.38 + Olancho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olancho attack 1.12 + Vida defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vida scores more
39%
level
27%
Olancho scores more
34%

Vida at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vida 1 – 1 Olancho

Vida and Olancho drew 1-1 in Liga Nacional on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Jorge in Olanchito.