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Victoria vs Vida — Liga Nacional 2018

Victoria
Victoria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vida
Vida
9/15/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 7Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Victoria43%
×Draw25%
Vida32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria
1.50
Vida
1.27

Victoria creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 109 away

creates per match

Victoria
1.29
Vida
1.15

allows per match

Victoria
1.39
Vida
1.70

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par
Vida+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Vida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Victoria or draw
68%
Victoria or Vida
75%
Draw or Vida
57%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+
21%
Vida wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals
78%
Victoria 2+ goals
44%
Victoria 3+ goals
19%
Vida 1+ goals
72%
Vida 2+ goals
36%
Vida 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)
57%
Vida (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Vida away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + Vida defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vida attack 1.15 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Victoria scores more
43%
level
25%
Vida scores more
32%

Victoria at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria vs Vida

Vida beat Victoria 2-1 in Liga Nacional on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards in La Ceiba.