Victoria 0–4 Platense FC: Result & Stats

Victoria

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Platense FC

8/3/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal Ceibeño Nilmo Edwards

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Victoria44%

×Draw25%

Platense FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VictoriaExpected goals in this matchPlatense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Victoria

1.54

Platense FC

1.25

Victoria creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 91 away

1.29

creates per match

1.12

1.39

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Victoria

1.29

Platense FC

1.12

allows per match

Victoria

1.39

Platense FC

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par

Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Platense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Victoria or draw

69%

Victoria or Platense FC

75%

Draw or Platense FC

56%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+

22%

Platense FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals

79%

Victoria 2+ goals

45%

Victoria 3+ goals

20%

Platense FC 1+ goals

71%

Platense FC 2+ goals

36%

Platense FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)

59%

Platense FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + Platense FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Platense FC attack 1.12 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Victoria scores more

44%

level

25%

Platense FC scores more

31%

Victoria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff