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Victoria vs Lobos Upnfm — Liga Nacional 2018

Victoria
Victoria
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
4/6/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Victoria46%
×Draw25%
Lobos Upnfm29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria
1.56
Lobos Upnfm
1.19

Victoria creates 31% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 150 away

creates per match

Victoria
1.29
Lobos Upnfm
0.99

allows per match

Victoria
1.39
Lobos Upnfm
1.84

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par
Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Lobos Upnfm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Victoria or draw
71%
Victoria or Lobos Upnfm
75%
Draw or Lobos Upnfm
54%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+
23%
Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals
79%
Victoria 2+ goals
46%
Victoria 3+ goals
21%
Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
70%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
33%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)
61%
Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.84 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.99 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Victoria scores more
46%
level
25%
Lobos Upnfm scores more
29%

Victoria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria vs Lobos Upnfm

Victoria beat Lobos Upnfm 3-2 in Liga Nacional on April 6, 2026.