Victoria 4–1 Atlético Choloma: Result & Stats

Victoria

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Choloma

12/2/2025

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Victoria51%

×Draw23%

Atlético Choloma26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VictoriaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Choloma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.19

Victoria

1.77

Atlético Choloma

1.19

Victoria creates 49% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 20 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

1.39

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Victoria

1.29

Atlético Choloma

1.00

allows per match

Victoria

1.39

Atlético Choloma

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria+0.00on par

Atlético Choloma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria ↓

Atlético Choloma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Victoria or draw

74%

Victoria or Atlético Choloma

77%

Draw or Atlético Choloma

49%

Winning margin

Victoria wins by 2+

28%

Atlético Choloma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Victoria 1+ goals

83%

Victoria 2+ goals

53%

Victoria 3+ goals

26%

Atlético Choloma 1+ goals

70%

Atlético Choloma 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Choloma 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Victoria (draw refunded)

66%

Atlético Choloma (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 97 matches

Atlético Choloma away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria attack 1.29 + Atlético Choloma defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Atlético Choloma attack 1.00 + Victoria defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Victoria scores more

51%

level

23%

Atlético Choloma scores more

26%

Victoria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Victoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff