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Victoria United vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
4/1/2024Elite OneElite One · Championship Round - 2Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United45%
×Draw26%
Young Sport Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.50
Young Sport Academy
1.15

Victoria United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 79 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.67
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

Victoria United
1.36
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
71%
Victoria United or Young Sport Academy
74%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
55%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
22%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
78%
Victoria United 2+ goals
44%
Victoria United 3+ goals
19%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
68%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
32%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
61%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Victoria United scores more
45%
level
26%
Young Sport Academy scores more
29%

Victoria United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Victoria United 1–2 Young Sport Academy

Young Sport Academy beat Victoria United 2-1 in Elite One on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.