Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Victoria United vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
11/12/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 7Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United40%
×Draw27%
UMS de Loum33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.28
UMS de Loum
1.14

Victoria United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 66 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.67
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Victoria United
1.36
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
67%
Victoria United or UMS de Loum
73%
Draw or UMS de Loum
60%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
18%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
72%
Victoria United 2+ goals
37%
Victoria United 3+ goals
14%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
68%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
32%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
55%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Victoria United scores more
40%
level
27%
UMS de Loum scores more
33%

Victoria United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Victoria United 2–2 UMS de Loum

Victoria United and UMS de Loum drew 2-2 in Elite One on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.