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Victoria United vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
12/29/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United57%
×Draw25%
Tonnerre18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.60
Tonnerre
0.76

Victoria United creates 111% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.83
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

Victoria United
0.50
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
82%
Victoria United or Tonnerre
75%
Draw or Tonnerre
43%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
31%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
80%
Victoria United 2+ goals
47%
Victoria United 3+ goals
22%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
53%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
18%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
76%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Victoria United scores more
57%
level
25%
Tonnerre scores more
18%

Victoria United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Victoria United 0–1 Tonnerre

Tonnerre beat Victoria United 1-0 in Elite Two on December 29, 2022.