Victoria United 3–1 Stade de Bertoua

Victoria United

FT

3 – 1

Stade de Bertoua

1/25/2023

Elite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United62%

×Draw24%

Stade de Bertoua14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria UnitedExpected goals in this matchStade de Bertoua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.61

Victoria United

1.61

Stade de Bertoua

0.61

Victoria United creates 164% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.83

creates per match

0.72

0.50

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Victoria United

1.83

Stade de Bertoua

0.72

allows per match

Victoria United

0.50

Stade de Bertoua

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Stade de Bertoua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw

86%

Victoria United or Stade de Bertoua

76%

Draw or Stade de Bertoua

38%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+

34%

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals

80%

Victoria United 2+ goals

48%

Victoria United 3+ goals

22%

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals

46%

Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals

13%

Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)

82%

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Victoria United scores more

62%

level

24%

Stade de Bertoua scores more

14%

Victoria United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff