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Victoria United vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Panthère
Panthère
12/22/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 4Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United43%
×Draw27%
Panthère30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.36
Panthère
1.10

Victoria United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 64 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.67
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

Victoria United
1.36
Panthère
1.05

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
70%
Victoria United or Panthère
73%
Draw or Panthère
57%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
20%
Panthère wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
74%
Victoria United 2+ goals
39%
Victoria United 3+ goals
16%
Panthère 1+ goals
67%
Panthère 2+ goals
30%
Panthère 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
59%
Panthère (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.36

Panthère attack 0.84 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Victoria United scores more
43%
level
27%
Panthère scores more
30%

Victoria United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Victoria United 0–4 Panthère

Panthère beat Victoria United 4-0 in Elite One on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.