Victoria United 2–2 Gazelle: Result & Stats

Victoria United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gazelle

3/1/2026

Elite One · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United40%

×Draw26%

Gazelle35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria UnitedExpected goals in this matchGazelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.29

Victoria United

1.40

Gazelle

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 52 away

1.67

creates per match

1.21

1.36

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Victoria United

1.67

Gazelle

1.21

allows per match

Victoria United

1.36

Gazelle

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par

Gazelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Gazelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw

65%

Victoria United or Gazelle

74%

Draw or Gazelle

60%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+

18%

Gazelle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals

75%

Victoria United 2+ goals

41%

Victoria United 3+ goals

17%

Gazelle 1+ goals

72%

Gazelle 2+ goals

37%

Gazelle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)

53%

Gazelle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Gazelle away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Gazelle defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gazelle attack 1.21 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Victoria United scores more

40%

level

26%

Gazelle scores more

35%

Victoria United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff