Victoria United 3–1 Fortuna Mfou: Result & Stats

Victoria United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fortuna Mfou

1/12/2025

Elite One · Round 7Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United44%

×Draw25%

Fortuna Mfou31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria UnitedExpected goals in this matchFortuna Mfou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.23

Victoria United

1.53

Fortuna Mfou

1.23

Victoria United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 96 away

1.67

creates per match

1.09

1.36

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Victoria United

1.67

Fortuna Mfou

1.09

allows per match

Victoria United

1.36

Fortuna Mfou

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Fortuna Mfou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw

69%

Victoria United or Fortuna Mfou

75%

Draw or Fortuna Mfou

56%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+

22%

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals

78%

Victoria United 2+ goals

45%

Victoria United 3+ goals

20%

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

71%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

35%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)

59%

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.53

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Victoria United scores more

44%

level

25%

Fortuna Mfou scores more

31%

Victoria United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria United vs Fortuna Mfou

Victoria United beat Fortuna Mfou 3-1 in Elite One on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.

Victoria United vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Victoria United vs Fortuna Mfou