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Victoria United vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
0 – 1
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
1/11/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United66%
×Draw21%
Foncha ST14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.98
Foncha ST
0.77

Victoria United creates 157% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 50 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.83
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Victoria United
0.50
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
86%
Victoria United or Foncha ST
79%
Draw or Foncha ST
34%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
40%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
86%
Victoria United 2+ goals
59%
Victoria United 3+ goals
31%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
54%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
18%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
83%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.98

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Victoria United scores more
66%
level
21%
Foncha ST scores more
14%

Victoria United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria United vs Foncha ST

Foncha ST beat Victoria United 1-0 in Elite Two on January 11, 2023.