Victoria United 1–0 Fauve Azur Elite

Victoria United

FT

1 – 0

Fauve Azur Elite

4/26/2025

Elite One · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Victoria United46%

×Draw27%

Fauve Azur Elite27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria UnitedExpected goals in this matchFauve Azur Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.98

Victoria United

1.37

Fauve Azur Elite

0.98

Victoria United creates 40% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

0.60

1.36

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Victoria United

1.67

Fauve Azur Elite

0.60

allows per match

Victoria United

1.36

Fauve Azur Elite

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw

73%

Victoria United or Fauve Azur Elite

73%

Draw or Fauve Azur Elite

54%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+

22%

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals

75%

Victoria United 2+ goals

40%

Victoria United 3+ goals

16%

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

62%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

26%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)

63%

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Victoria United scores more

46%

level

27%

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

27%

Victoria United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff