Victoria United 1–1 FAP: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Victoria United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FAP

3/15/2023

Elite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United54%

×Draw25%

FAP21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria UnitedExpected goals in this matchFAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.91

Victoria United

1.64

FAP

0.91

Victoria United creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 50 away

1.83

creates per match

1.32

0.50

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Victoria United

1.83

FAP

1.32

allows per match

Victoria United

0.50

FAP

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par

FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

FAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw

79%

Victoria United or FAP

75%

Draw or FAP

46%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+

29%

FAP wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals

81%

Victoria United 2+ goals

49%

Victoria United 3+ goals

23%

FAP 1+ goals

60%

FAP 2+ goals

23%

FAP 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)

72%

FAP (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

FAP attack 1.32 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Victoria United scores more

54%

level

25%

FAP scores more

21%

Victoria United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff