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Victoria United vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite One 2019

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
4/23/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Victoria United38%
×Draw26%
Dynamo de Douala36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.40
Dynamo de Douala
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.67
Dynamo de Douala
1.34

allows per match

Victoria United
1.36
Dynamo de Douala
1.13

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
64%
Victoria United or Dynamo de Douala
74%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
62%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
18%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
75%
Victoria United 2+ goals
41%
Victoria United 3+ goals
17%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
74%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
39%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
52%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Victoria United scores more
38%
level
26%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
36%

Victoria United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria United vs Dynamo de Douala

Dynamo de Douala beat Victoria United 2-1 in Elite One on April 23, 2026.