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Victoria United vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
1/19/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United55%
×Draw27%
Dynamo de Douala18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.45
Dynamo de Douala
0.70

Victoria United creates 107% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.83
Dynamo de Douala
0.89

allows per match

Victoria United
0.50
Dynamo de Douala
1.06

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
82%
Victoria United or Dynamo de Douala
73%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
45%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
28%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
77%
Victoria United 2+ goals
42%
Victoria United 3+ goals
18%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
50%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
75%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dynamo de Douala attack 0.89 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Victoria United scores more
55%
level
27%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
18%

Victoria United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria United vs Dynamo de Douala

Victoria United beat Dynamo de Douala 4-0 in Elite Two on January 19, 2023.