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Victoria United vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
0 – 3
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
10/21/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 5Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United43%
×Draw26%
APEJES Academy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.46
APEJES Academy
1.19

Victoria United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 67 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.67
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Victoria United
1.36
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
69%
Victoria United or APEJES Academy
74%
Draw or APEJES Academy
57%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
21%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
77%
Victoria United 2+ goals
43%
Victoria United 3+ goals
18%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
70%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
33%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
58%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Victoria United scores more
43%
level
26%
APEJES Academy scores more
31%

Victoria United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Victoria United 0–3 APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat Victoria United 3-0 in Elite One on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.