Victoria Seelow 1–1 Torgelower SV Greif

Victoria Seelow

FT

1 – 1

Torgelower SV Greif

10/30/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 10Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Victoria Seelow17%

×Draw19%

Torgelower SV Greif64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria SeelowExpected goals in this matchTorgelower SV Greif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.32

Victoria Seelow

1.10

Torgelower SV Greif

2.32

Torgelower SV Greif creates 111% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.10

creates per match

1.89

2.76

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Victoria Seelow

1.10

Torgelower SV Greif

1.89

allows per match

Victoria Seelow

2.76

Torgelower SV Greif

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw

36%

Victoria Seelow or Torgelower SV Greif

81%

Draw or Torgelower SV Greif

83%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+

6%

Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals

67%

Victoria Seelow 2+ goals

30%

Victoria Seelow 3+ goals

10%

Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals

90%

Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals

67%

Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)

21%

Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more

17%

level

19%

Torgelower SV Greif scores more

64%

Torgelower SV Greif at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Torgelower SV Greif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff