Victoria Seelow vs Neustrelitz

Victoria Seelow

CANC

13:00

Neustrelitz

3/21/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 24Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Seelow25%

×Draw21%

Neustrelitz54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria SeelowExpected goals in this matchNeustrelitz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

2.11

Victoria Seelow

1.37

Neustrelitz

2.11

Neustrelitz creates 54% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 81 away

1.10

creates per match

1.47

2.76

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Victoria Seelow

1.10

Neustrelitz

1.47

allows per match

Victoria Seelow

2.76

Neustrelitz

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

Neustrelitz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw

46%

Victoria Seelow or Neustrelitz

79%

Draw or Neustrelitz

75%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+

11%

Neustrelitz wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals

75%

Victoria Seelow 2+ goals

40%

Victoria Seelow 3+ goals

16%

Neustrelitz 1+ goals

88%

Neustrelitz 2+ goals

62%

Neustrelitz 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)

31%

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.37

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more

25%

level

21%

Neustrelitz scores more

54%

Neustrelitz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neustrelitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff