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Victoria Seelow vs FC Lok Stendal — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
CANC
12:00
FC Lok Stendal
FC Lok Stendal
4/25/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Victoria Seelow47%
×Draw20%
FC Lok Stendal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Seelow
2.23
FC Lok Stendal
1.85

Victoria Seelow creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Victoria Seelow
1.10
FC Lok Stendal
0.95

allows per match

Victoria Seelow
2.76
FC Lok Stendal
3.35

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par
FC Lok Stendal+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

FC Lok Stendal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw
67%
Victoria Seelow or FC Lok Stendal
80%
Draw or FC Lok Stendal
53%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
27%
FC Lok Stendal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
89%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
65%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
38%
FC Lok Stendal 1+ goals
84%
FC Lok Stendal 2+ goals
55%
FC Lok Stendal 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
59%
FC Lok Stendal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

FC Lok Stendal away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + FC Lok Stendal defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.23

FC Lok Stendal attack 0.95 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more
47%
level
20%
FC Lok Stendal scores more
33%

Victoria Seelow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Victoria Seelow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria Seelow vs FC Lok Stendal — Match Preview

Victoria Seelow face FC Lok Stendal on April 25, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Victoria Seelow host FC Lok Stendal at Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.