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Victoria Seelow vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
CANC
12:00
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
5/30/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 32Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Seelow33%
×Draw23%
BSC Süd 0544%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Seelow
1.52
BSC Süd 05
1.76

BSC Süd 05 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Victoria Seelow
1.10
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

Victoria Seelow
2.76
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw
56%
Victoria Seelow or BSC Süd 05
77%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
67%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
16%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
78%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
45%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
20%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
83%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
52%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
43%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more
33%
level
23%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
44%

BSC Süd 05 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BSC Süd 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Victoria Seelow host BSC Süd 05

May 30, 2021: Victoria Seelow take on BSC Süd 05 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Victoria Seelow host BSC Süd 05 at Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.