Victoria Rosport 0–2 Wiltz: Result & Stats

Victoria Rosport

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wiltz

D. Timmermans 56'

C. Philipps 47'

5/8/2021

National Division · Round 26Party-Rent-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Victoria Rosport41%

×Draw24%

Wiltz35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria RosportExpected goals in this matchWiltz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.49

Victoria Rosport

1.63

Wiltz

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 75 away

1.33

creates per match

1.31

1.67

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Victoria Rosport

1.33

Wiltz

1.31

allows per match

Victoria Rosport

1.67

Wiltz

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

Wiltz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw

65%

Victoria Rosport or Wiltz

76%

Draw or Wiltz

59%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

21%

Wiltz wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

80%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

48%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

22%

Wiltz 1+ goals

77%

Wiltz 2+ goals

44%

Wiltz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

54%

Wiltz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 115 matches

Wiltz away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.92 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 1.33 + Wiltz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Wiltz attack 1.31 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more

41%

level

24%

Wiltz scores more

35%

Victoria Rosport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Ramiro Valente← G. Feltes

47'

C. Philipps

56'

D. Timmermans

58'

J. Neves Araujo← M. Bechtold

68'

L. Vaccaro← C. Philipps

72'

Gabriel Gaspar← D. Bartsch

84'

C. Schroeder← S. Ibrahimović

86'

M. Poitoux← S. Pita

Victoria

Wiltz

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Thomé

46'▲Ramiro Valente←▼G. Feltes

58'▲J. Neves Araujo←▼M. Bechtold

72'▲Gabriel Gaspar←▼D. Bartsch

Victoria Rosport substitutes

ValenteAraujoGaspar

Manager: D. Huet

68'▲L. Vaccaro←▼C. Philipps

84'▲C. Schroeder←▼S. Ibrahimović

86'▲M. Poitoux←▼S. Pita

Wiltz substitutes

VaccaroSchroederPoitoux