Victoria Rosport 5–3 Schott Mainz: Result & Stats

Victoria Rosport

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Schott Mainz

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Victoria Rosport54%

×Draw18%

Schott Mainz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria RosportExpected goals in this matchSchott Mainz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.98

Victoria Rosport

2.77

Schott Mainz

1.98

Victoria Rosport creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

2.75

creates per match

1.70

2.25

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Victoria Rosport

2.75

Schott Mainz

1.70

allows per match

Victoria Rosport

2.25

Schott Mainz

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

Schott Mainz →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw

72%

Victoria Rosport or Schott Mainz

82%

Draw or Schott Mainz

46%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

35%

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

94%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

76%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

51%

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

86%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

59%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

66%

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 2.75 + Schott Mainz defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.77

Schott Mainz attack 1.70 + Victoria Rosport defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more

54%

level

18%

Schott Mainz scores more

28%

Victoria Rosport at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Victoria

Schott

Manager: Martin Forkel

Manager: S. Horozović