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Victoria Clarholz vs Wiedenbrück — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wiedenbrück
Wiedenbrück
M. Aciz 90'
B. Friesen 75'
S. Kaptan 44'
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TönniesArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Victoria Clarholz36%
×Draw24%
Wiedenbrück40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.50
Wiedenbrück
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
2.00
Wiedenbrück
2.14

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.00
Wiedenbrück
1.00

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Wiedenbrück+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Wiedenbrück →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
60%
Victoria Clarholz or Wiedenbrück
76%
Draw or Wiedenbrück
64%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
17%
Wiedenbrück wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
78%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
44%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
19%
Wiedenbrück 1+ goals
79%
Wiedenbrück 2+ goals
46%
Wiedenbrück 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
48%
Wiedenbrück (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Wiedenbrück away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 2.00 + Wiedenbrück defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wiedenbrück attack 2.14 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
36%
level
24%
Wiedenbrück scores more
40%

Wiedenbrück at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wiedenbrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
S. Kaptan
75'
B. Friesen
90'
M. Aciz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Clarholz vs Wiedenbrück

Wiedenbrück beat Victoria Clarholz 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Kaptan (44'), B. Friesen (75'), M. Aciz (90').

The match was played at TönniesArena in Rheda-Wiedenbrück.