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Victoria Clarholz vs SG Wattenscheid 09 — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SG Wattenscheid 09
SG Wattenscheid 09
2/28/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 20Holzhofstadion Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Victoria Clarholz36%
×Draw24%
SG Wattenscheid 0940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.54
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 70 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.76

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
SG Wattenscheid 09
1.51

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
SG Wattenscheid 09+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

SG Wattenscheid 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
60%
Victoria Clarholz or SG Wattenscheid 09
76%
Draw or SG Wattenscheid 09
64%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
18%
SG Wattenscheid 09 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
79%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
45%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
20%
SG Wattenscheid 09 1+ goals
80%
SG Wattenscheid 09 2+ goals
48%
SG Wattenscheid 09 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
48%
SG Wattenscheid 09 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

SG Wattenscheid 09 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.51 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + SG Wattenscheid 09 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

SG Wattenscheid 09 attack 1.76 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
36%
level
24%
SG Wattenscheid 09 scores more
40%

SG Wattenscheid 09 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SG Wattenscheid 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Victoria Clarholz 1–2 SG Wattenscheid 09

SG Wattenscheid 09 beat Victoria Clarholz 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Holzhofstadion Kunstrasen in Herzebrock-Clarholz.