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Victoria Clarholz vs Erkenschwick — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
2/10/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15Holzhofstadion Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Victoria Clarholz44%
×Draw23%
Erkenschwick33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.73
Erkenschwick
1.48

Victoria Clarholz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 53 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Erkenschwick
1.47

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Erkenschwick
1.91

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Erkenschwick+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Erkenschwick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
67%
Victoria Clarholz or Erkenschwick
77%
Draw or Erkenschwick
56%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
23%
Erkenschwick wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
82%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
52%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
25%
Erkenschwick 1+ goals
77%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
43%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
57%
Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Erkenschwick away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Erkenschwick defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Erkenschwick attack 1.47 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
44%
level
23%
Erkenschwick scores more
33%

Victoria Clarholz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Clarholz vs Erkenschwick

Erkenschwick beat Victoria Clarholz 5-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Holzhofstadion Kunstrasen in Herzebrock-Clarholz.