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Erkenschwick vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
10/20/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 11Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erkenschwick43%
×Draw23%
Victoria Clarholz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erkenschwick
1.74
Victoria Clarholz
1.50

Erkenschwick creates 16% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 89 away

creates per match

Erkenschwick
1.69
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Erkenschwick
1.71
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Erkenschwick+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erkenschwick ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Erkenschwick or draw
67%
Erkenschwick or Victoria Clarholz
77%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
57%

Winning margin

Erkenschwick wins by 2+
23%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Erkenschwick 1+ goals
82%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
52%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
25%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
78%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
44%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
57%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erkenschwick at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erkenschwick attack 1.69 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Erkenschwick defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Erkenschwick scores more
43%
level
23%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
33%

Erkenschwick at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Erkenschwick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erkenschwick vs Victoria Clarholz

Erkenschwick and Victoria Clarholz drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Stimbergstrasse in Oer-Erkenschwick.