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Victoria Bardar vs Speranța Drochia — League #395 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
8 – 2
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
12/7/2024League #395League #395 · Round 15Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Victoria Bardar64%
×Draw16%
Speranța Drochia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
3.37
Speranța Drochia
1.90

Victoria Bardar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.73
Speranța Drochia
1.25

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
2.55
Speranța Drochia
4.00

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
80%
Victoria Bardar or Speranța Drochia
84%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
36%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
46%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
96%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
84%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
63%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
85%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
56%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
76%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.73 + Speranța Drochia defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.37

Speranța Drochia attack 1.25 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
64%
level
16%
Speranța Drochia scores more
20%

Victoria Bardar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Bardar vs Speranța Drochia

Victoria Bardar beat Speranța Drochia 8-2 in League #395 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.