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Victoria Bardar vs Saxan — Super Liga 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Saxan
Saxan
O. Schiopu 79'
D. Cucer 59'
B. Musteata 32', 9'
5/2/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 8Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Victoria Bardar36%
×Draw22%
Saxan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
1.69
Saxan
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.29
Saxan
2.00

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
1.62
Saxan
1.09

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
59%
Victoria Bardar or Saxan
78%
Draw or Saxan
64%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
18%
Saxan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
82%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
50%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
24%
Saxan 1+ goals
84%
Saxan 2+ goals
54%
Saxan 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
47%
Saxan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Saxan away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.29 + Saxan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.69

Saxan attack 2.00 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
36%
level
22%
Saxan scores more
41%

Saxan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
B. Musteata
32'
B. Musteata
59'
D. Cucer
79'
O. Schiopu
Victoria
Saxan
A. Novicov
Manager: A. Novicov
E. Molovata
Manager: E. Molovata

Super Liga: Victoria Bardar 1–3 Saxan

Saxan beat Victoria Bardar 3-1 in Super Liga on May 2, 2025.

Goals: B. Musteata (9', 32'), D. Cucer (59'), O. Schiopu (79').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.