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Vicenza Virtus vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spal
Spal
M. Cavion 45+2'
G. Rossi 26'
2/19/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus39%
×Draw28%
Spal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.20
Spal
1.08

Vicenza Virtus creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 58 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.11
Spal
0.90

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.27
Spal
1.28

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
67%
Vicenza Virtus or Spal
72%
Draw or Spal
61%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
17%
Spal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
70%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
34%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
12%
Spal 1+ goals
66%
Spal 2+ goals
29%
Spal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
54%
Spal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Spal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Spal defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Spal attack 0.90 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
39%
level
28%
Spal scores more
33%

Vicenza Virtus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. CapradossiSpalSpal · D
7.5

Match Events

26'
G. Rossi↳ J. Da Riva
39'
Elio Capradossi
43'
L. Crecco← J. Lukaku
45+1'
Francesco Vicari
45+2'
M. Cavion
46'
N. Dalmonte← Ł. Teodorczyk
57'
F. Melchiorri← G. Rossi
63'
R. Meggiorini← A. da Cruz
76'
Marco Mancosu
76'
S. Giacomelli← F. Ranocchia
78'
L. D'Orazio← L. Colombo
87'
F. Zuculini← L. Mora
89'
Marco MancosuPenalty cancelled

Possession

41%Vicenza

Shots

15Vicenza

Pass accuracy

47%Vicenza

Statistics

VicenzaSpal
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots7
4Corners3
5Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots7
5On Target3
6Off Target3
4Blocked1
10Inside Box6
5Outside Box1
Passing
41%Possession59%
316Total Passes468
204Accurate Passes345
65%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
5Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
4Offsides6

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Spal

Vicenza Virtus and Spal drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 19, 2022.

Goals: G. Rossi (26'), M. Cavion (45+2').

Spal controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.