Vicenza Virtus 0–1 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vicenza Virtus

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Parma

G. Tutino 32'

3/15/2022

Serie B · Round 30Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vicenza Virtus32%

×Draw27%

Parma40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.31

Vicenza Virtus

1.14

Parma

1.31

Parma creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

1.11

creates per match

1.36

1.27

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Parma

1.36

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.27

Parma

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Parma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

60%

Vicenza Virtus or Parma

73%

Draw or Parma

68%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

13%

Parma wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

68%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

32%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

11%

Parma 1+ goals

73%

Parma 2+ goals

38%

Parma 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

44%

Parma (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

Parma away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Parma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Parma attack 1.36 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

32%

level

27%

Parma scores more

40%

Parma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

M. Turk

Parma · G

8.0

Match Events

27'

Michele Cavion

32'

G. Tutino

34'

Gennaro TutinoGoal confirmed

42'

43'

53'

53'

56'

56'

R. Meggiorini← Ł. Teodorczyk

63'

A. Traore← D. Camara

65'

Charles Boli

66'

G. Pandev← D. Sits

67'

M. Bruscagin← L. Crecco

67'

S. Nwankwo← A. Benedyczak

68'

Goran Pandev

77'

Félix Correia← G. Tutino

78'

A. Rispoli← W. Coulibaly

80'

Martin Turk

83'

S. Giacomelli← M. Cavion

86'

Dennis Man

90'

Riccardo Meggiorini

90+3'

Danilo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaParma

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots7

9Corners4

16Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots7

5On Target3

6Off Target2

7Blocked2

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

337Total Passes368

243Accurate Passes286

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls19

5Yellow Cards6

5Offsides1

Match Recap: Vicenza Virtus vs Parma

Parma beat Vicenza Virtus 1-0 in Serie B on March 15, 2022.

Goals: G. Tutino (32').

Parma controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.

Vicenza Virtus vs Parma — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vicenza Virtus vs Parma